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 Project Title:  Monitoring the Future
 Principal Investigator:  Lloyd Johnston
 Co-Investigators:  Jerald Bachman, Patrick O'Malley, John Schulenberg

 

Contact Person and Information:
Patrick M. O'Malley, Ph.D.
Institute for Social Research
Survey Research Center. Room 2320
P.O. Box 1248
Ann Arbor Michigan 48106-1248
tel: 734-763-5043
fax: 734-936-0043
POMalley@isr.umich.edu

 

 STUDY AIMS:
The aims include: (1) to monitor drug use and related factors among American secondary school students, those who drop out of secondary school, college students, and other young adults; (2) to distinguish which of three fundamentally different kinds of change--maturational, historical (cohort), and/or secular trends--is taking place; and (3) to study the causes, consequences, and maturational patterns associated with these different types of change in drug use.
 
 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE INITIAL SAMPLE:
Selection criteria:
A. Nationally representative samples of high school seniors selected each year since 1976, with a random sub-sample selected for biennial follow-up until age 32, and again at ages 35 and 40.
B. Nationally representative samples of 8th and 10th graders selected each year since 1991, with a random sub-sample of the 1991, 1992, and 1993 8th grade cohorts selected for biennial follow-up.
 Sample characteristics:

Gender:

 Split approximately equal by gender at Wave 1, with somewhat greater retention for females.

Ethnicity:

 Nationally representative at Wave 1 (approximately 74% white, 13% African American, 8% Hispanic, 3% Asian American, 1% American Indian, 2% other), with somewhat greater retention for whites.

Socioeconomic Status:

 Nationally representative at Wave 1, with somewhat greater retention among higher SES respondents

COMPLETED WAVES:
.

 Wave

 Age of Subjects
   N:
A

1
 18  426,000
.

2
 19-20 40,000
.

3
 21-22  35,000
.

Thru

.

.
.

9

35
   22,000
 .  .  40  10,000
B

1
 14  182,000
.

2
 16  4,200
.

3
 18  4,200
.

4
  20  4,200
Currently Funded Waves:

 A

 10
 40

.

 B

5
 22  
 

 6
 24  
Future Planned Waves:

 A

11
 45  

 B

7
 26  
 

 8
 28  

DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES:
Adolescence
Young Adulthood
Middle Adulthood		    

MEASURES    
Personal:
  Personality: Drug related attitudes and beliefs,
work and leisure behaviors and attitudes,
gender roles,
views of future family,
conservation,
materialism,
religious views and activities,
political views and activities,
views on social change and social problems,
views on military,
race relations,
concern for others,
personality characteristics (e.g., risk taking, hostility),
  Cognitive Competence: educational success and plans,
educational attainment
   Symptoms and Syndromes: Use of full range of licit and illicit drugs,
difficulties associated with the use of various drugs
Happiness
deviance and victimization,
Social
   Stress and Supports: perceived norms regarding drug use
drug availability and exposure,
interpersonal relationships,

 

REPRESENTATIVE FINDINGS:
1. Secular and developmental trends in illicit drugs (especially marijuana and cocaine) over the past two decades.
 
2. Changes in drug use during the transition to young adulthood as a function of living arrangements (e.g., increase when move away from parents) and assumption of adulthood roles (e.g., decrease with marriage, pregnancy).
 
3. Short- and long-term effects of teenage drug use.
 
4. Protective effects of religion and educational success against drug use.
 
5. Attitudes regarding drugs more predictive of use than availability of drugs.

 

REPRESENTATIVE PUBLICATIONS:
See Web site: www. MonitoringTheFuture.org