II. Current Trends in Technology and Communications
Some of the more popular current trends in technology and
communication
processes include the internet, e-mail, chat rooms, sophisticated beepers,
computers that control household tasks, high definition television, and
cellular modems. Although these technologies are fascinating, we must consider
how they apply to the average citizen. Will the average citizen be able
to plug in a new computer and be connected to the internet in a flash?
Will a person be able to turn on their new pager and be able to get stock
quotes, sports scores, and weather information with the press of a button?
Or will these technologies only apply to computer and technology experts?
Furthermore, we must consider how we are going to use these technologies,
and we must figure out if there are practical "real world" applications.
Without a doubt, the internet is one of the most popular trends in
technology.
More and more people are becoming connected via e-mail and chat rooms.
With a personal computer and modem, the average citizen can easily connect
to the World Wide Web and e-mail from his/her home. Many computers are
easy to set up and get connected to the internet. After all, the computer
manufacturers and internet access providers want to get everyone connected.
In this manner, the average citizen can get connected easily. Skeptics
argue that e-mail and the internet will not continue to grow at an exponential
rate because it does not allow for face-to-face interaction, nor does it
allow people to communicate using gestures, expressions, and other non-verbal
forms.
I think that there are several practical uses of the internet and
e-mail
that will allow it to continue growing exponentially. For example, employees
of corporations headquartered in 30 story skyscrapers can be connected
to each other via local area networks and the internet. In addition, the
internet benefits students because there is a wealth of information out
there accessible from one's personal computer or university computing sites.
In the future, I think that e-mail as we know it today will slowly die
out. Instead, I think that real time video will become standard. This will
allow us to use non-verbal communication. In addition, I think that computers
will talk to us and let us know when we have messages. This will eliminate
the need to check messages at random times because we will know when we
have messages.
Considering telephones, new technologies allow people to
communicate
face-to-face via special "view phones." I think that this type
of technology will become common in the long term. In the next five years,
I do not think that this technology will become popular because it is too
expensive for the average citizen. Using view phones requires both parties
to have a view phone, which would cost a lot of money. Second, I do not
think that there are enough practical applications of this technology that
will persuade manufacturers to develop it at a rapid rate. Currently, businesses
may have demand view phones, but to the average citizen, I do not think
there is a legitimate purpose that would stimulate enough demand. In the
long term, I think that the price of these phones will drop significantly
and persuade more people to buy them.
Beepers have been available in the market for several years. In
these
years, though, they have developed at a remarkable rate. Instead of just
beeping and vibrating, beepers now have voice mail and alpha-numeric message
capabilities. In the last year, beepers have become a source of up to the
minute stock reporting, weather reporting, and sports reporting. ESPN
and Motorola are marketing a beeper with that updates scores and
sports headlines every ten minutes. CNN (and Motorola) is developing
a beeper that updates current headlines, weather, and stock prices.
I think that these technologies are both accessible and useful to
the
average citizen. Although the internet and World Wide Web allow for the
same type of up-to-date information, the convenience of quick and instant
updates gets lost while a user waits to turn on the computer, open the
browser, and go to the page he/she wants. With a pager, the information
is sent automatically every ten or fifteen minutes. One does not have to
be in front of a computer screen or have to turn on their laptop and wait.
This convenience comes at a cost of $20 to $30 per month. This is expensive,
but I do not think that it puts it out of range to the average citizen.
For the person that wants up-to-date information, I think they would be
willing to pay this. As with most technologies, the price will eventually
be driven down as both demand and competition increase.
One of the more recent trends in technology is the home computer
that
controls light switches and outlets in a person's house. IBM's version
of this is the Aptiva model. It allows a person to have lights turn on
and off at set times of the day. In addition, it allows one to have the
coffee pot turn on at a set time. The ability of a computer to turn on
lights and appliances like coffee pots is convenient for many people. With
the current state of this technology, I do not think this convenience will
become commonplace to the average citizen in the next five years. How many
homes still have VCR's flashing 12:00 am? Many consumers have trouble setting
clocks on VCR's or getting the sound to come out of all the speakers in
their home entertainment systems. How many people will be able to figure
out how to get the computer to control the lights and outlets? Are we going
to hire a technician to come in and set it up for us? Are we going to have
to call him/her back every time the power goes out?
While these technologies are under-utilized now, I think that they
do
have a future. Manufacturers will realize that in order to increase use
and demand of their products, they will need to make them easier to use
and more cost effective. When products are easier to use and more accessible
to the average citizens (less costly), demand for technology increases
tremendously.
High definition television (HDTV) dates back to the early
1960s
and 1970s in Japan. This technology has not been rapidly developed mainly
because of the price. Each television can cost at much as $2000. At this
price, most consumers would stick with current televisions. Consequently,
this technology will not apply to the average citizen. Nonetheless, HDTV
is a promising technology. The main differences between HDTV and conventional
televisions are that HDTV systems provide higher picture resolution (more
than twice as much) and allow for CD quality surround sound.
According to industry analysts, HDTV is likely to occupy markets in
multimedia and interactive technology. As far as other real world applications,
HDTV's future is uncertain. Producing a new advanced television does not
mean that consumers will go out and buy it. While strong in technological
advances, HDTV is weak in consumer demand. In addition, getting into the
television market is becoming more and more difficult due to competition
among broadcast, computer, cable, and electronic industries.
Finally, cellular modems are a recent development that show
a
lot of promise. These new modems allow for data and faxes to be sent without
using telephone lines. Instead, a dedicated cellular phone cable is attached
from one's cellular phone to the credit card sized modem which fits into
the PCMCIA slot of most laptops. As far as real world applications go,
this technology will prove to be very popular. Laptops and cellular phones
have become the norms in business. This technology gives executives another
way to stay in contact with the home office. In addition, it allows them
to check their e-mail or send Lotus Notes without being near a phone jack.
As far as the average citizen is concerned, the price of this
technology
is very expensive. The modems themselves cost anywhere from $400 to $550
a piece. In addition, a cellular phone is necessary and cellular charges
will still apply. This will make this technology very expensive. However,
consumer demand for cellular phones, laptops, and internet access should
drive the costs down significantly in the next few years.
When developing new technologies, I think that it is all too common
to ignore practicality and focus too much on doing everything with a computer.
It seems like new technologies are developed without considering how useful
they are really going to be. It seems like manufacturers and developers
attempt to use a "push" strategy to sell products. Many technological
failures occur because a product is developed first, and then manufacturers
and marketers try to convince people that they need this new item. I think
that a better way to develop technologies is to use more of a "pull"
strategy. This strategy would consider current daily activities and figure
out which parts of our lives demand additional technology. Products could
be developed and sold more easily when developers consider society's demands
such as low costs and ease of use.
Here are some of the more interesting links. They present a diverse
group of link on the cutting edge of today's technology.
C-NET
ESPN
Motorola
IBM
HDTV
Cellular Modems
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