Stephen J. Terry

Associate Professor of Economics, University of Michigan
Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research
Editor, Review of Economics and Statistics


Google Scholar

Working Papers

Real Credit Cycles, with Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer, revise and resubmit, American Economic Review

Immigration, Innovation, and Growth, with Konrad B. Burchardi, Thomas Chaney, Tarek A. Hassan, and Lisa Tarquinio, revise and resubmit, American Economic Review, includes immigration shock data

The Empirical Distribution of Firm Dynamics and Its Macro Implications, with Nir Jaimovich and Nicolas Vincent

Short-Term Shocks and Long-Term Investment, with Itay Saporta-Eksten and Julio L. Ortiz, work in progress


The Macro Impact of Short-Termism, Econometrica, 2023

Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty, with Scott R. Baker and Nicholas Bloom, Review of Economic Studies, 2024, includes online appendix and code packet

Location, Location, Location: Manufacturing and House Price Growth, with Xiangyu Feng, Nir Jaimovich, Krishna Rao, and Nicolas Vincent, Economic Journal, 2023

Nonprofits in Good Times and Bad Times, with Christine L. Exley and Nils H. Lehr, JPE Microeconomics, 2023, includes DCR ratings

Information versus Investment, with Toni Whited and Anastasia Zakolyukina, Review of Financial Studies, 2023

The Dynamics of Concealment, with Jeremy Bertomeu, Ivan Marinovic, and Felipe Varas, Journal of Financial Economics, 2022

Trapped Factors and China's Impact on Global Growth, with Nicholas Bloom, Paul M. Romer, and John Van Reenen, Economic Journal, 2021, includes online appendix and code packet

Wage Elasticities in Working and Volunteering: The Role of Reference Points in a Laboratory Study, with Christine L. Exley, Management Science, 2019, includes online appendix

Really Uncertain Business Cycles, with Nicholas Bloom, Max Floetotto, Itay Saporta-Eksten, and Nir Jaimovich, Econometrica, 2018, includes online appendix, code packet, and data packet

Alternative Methods for Solving Heterogeneous Firm Models, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2017, includes online appendix and code packet

Markov-Chain Approximations of Vector Autoregressions: Application of General Multivariate-Normal Integration Techniques, with Edward S. Knotek II, Economics Letters, 2011, includes code packet

Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices, with Todd E. Clark, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2010

Resting, Policy, and Non-Refereed Papers

COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty, with Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis, 2020

A Trapped-Factors Model of Innovation, with Nicholas Bloom, Paul M. Romer, and John Van Reenen, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2013, includes code packet

How Will Unemployment Fare Following the Recession?, with Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, 2009

Alternative Methods of Solving State-Dependent Pricing Models, with Edward S. Knotek II, 2008


Are Uncertain Firms Riskier?, by Fahiz Baba-Yara, Carter Davis, Fotis Grigoris, and Preetesh Kantak, NBER Summer Institute, 2023

Perception Matters: Evidence from the Global Media Sentiment Indices of the Chinese Economy, by Vikram Dixit Kumaraswamy, Kevin P. Gallagher, Lei Guo, Marialuz Morena Badia, and Derry Wiyaja, BU Global Development Policy Center research seminar, 2023

Central Bank Communication, Financial Frictions, and Investment Decisions, by Luigi Pollio, Green Line Macro Meeting, 2021

A Simple Method to Measure Misallocation Using Natural Experiments, by David Sraer and David Thesmar, Barcelona GSE Summer Forum, 2021

Innovation under Ambiguity and Risk, by Gabriela Coiculescu, Yehuda Izhakian, and S. Abraham Ravid, Workshop on Entrepreneurial Finance and Innovation, 2020

Financial and Uncertainty Shocks, by Marco Brianti, Green Line Macro Meeting, 2020

Information Technology and Returns to Scale, by Danial Lashkari, Arthur Bauer, and Jocelyn Boussard, Green Line Macro Meeting, 2019

Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy, by Alisdair McKay and Johannes F. Wieland, NBER Summer Institute, 2019

Agency Frictions, Managerial Compensation, and Disruptive Innovations, by Murat Alp Celik and Xu Tian, Princeton Growth Conference, 2019

Political Uncertainty, Political Capital, and Firm Risk-Taking, by Pat Akey and Stefan Lewellen, AEA Meeting, 2018

Misallocation Cycles, by Cedric Ehouarne, Lars-Alexander Kuehn, and David Schreindorfer, WFA Meeting, 2017

Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?, by Sydney C. Ludvigson, Sai Ma, and Serena Ng, NBER Monetary Economics Spring Meeting, 2016

Monetary Policy Expectations and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound, by Rachel Doehr and Enrique Martinez-Garcia, SEA Meeting, 2015

Health Insurance, Growth, and Endogenous Mortality in a Continuous-Time Overlapping Generations Economy, by Mark Kelly, SEA Meeting, 2015