• What are the models being compared?

The auroral conductance models are coupled with the Ridley Ionosphere Model (RIM) and BATSRUS within the Space Weather Modeling Framework.
• MAGNIT is semi-physical (partially math and physics based)
• RLM is empirical (data-based) and is the original auroral conductance model in RIM.
• CMEE is empirical (data-based) and is RLM having used a larger database.


• How are the models being compaed?

Model performance can be described by many different metrics that tell a different perspective of the story.
• Accuracy: How well can the model exactly reproduce data? (RMSE, MSE, MAE)
• Bias: Is the model systematically different than the observed data? (ME, mean)
• Precision: After bias is removed, how similar do data and models cluster? (YI, standard deviation (ratio and difference))
• Extremes: Is the distribution of model and data different than a typical Gaussian? (Skew and kurtosis (difference))
• Correlation: How well does the model follow the up/down trends of the data? (R)
• Skill: Is the model able to predict variations of fluxesaround the mean? (PE)
The metrics can be represented and studied numerically and graphically.


• What event is being used?

The Galaxy-15 event occured on April 5th, 2010 and is a ICME driven period of activity associated with a substorm with an extreme dipolarization. It is named after the complete failure of the Galaxy 15 satellite due to the event.


• Is this work being published?

Yes, the work has culminated into a paper currently under review in Frontiers journal Astronomy and Space Sciences, for their special collection 'Uncertainty Quantification and Model Validation in Space Weather Modeling'.

Studying the metrics numerically: Click Me - Statistics Google Sheet Studying the metrics graphically: Graphs in accordian below (clicking me won't actually do anything)